BTC Price Prediction: Will Bitcoin Reclaim $100,000 Amid Market Volatility?

Price

24H change

Trade

#BTC

• Technical Outlook: BTC tests key support at $100,897 with mixed signals from MACD and Bollinger Bands.
• Market Sentiment: Institutional adoption (Texas, South Korea) contrasts with bearish on-chain metrics.
• Price Catalyst: A break above the 20-day MA at $105,403.81 could target $100,000.

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Key Indicators to Watch

According to BTCC financial analyst James, BTC is currently trading at $102,680.53, slightly below its 20-day moving average (MA) of $105,403.81. The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover with the MACD line at 321.02 above the signal line at 308.37, suggesting potential upward momentum. However, the price is hovering NEAR the lower Bollinger Band at $100,897.07, indicating a possible support level. James notes that a break below this level could signal further downside, while a rebound above the middle band at $105,403.81 may confirm a bullish reversal.

Market Sentiment: Mixed Signals for BTC Adoption and Price Stability

BTCC financial analyst James highlights a mix of bullish and bearish catalysts in the news flow. On the positive side, Texas launching a state-funded Bitcoin reserve and South Korea's potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs in 2025 could drive institutional adoption. However, bearish on-chain metrics, leverage liquidations ($160M longs), and uncertainty around the $95,500–$97,000 support zone may weigh on prices. James believes the market is in a consolidation phase, awaiting a clearer directional catalyst.

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

Texas Launches State-Funded Bitcoin Reserve — What It Means for BTC Adoption

Texas has become the first U.S. state to establish a publicly funded, standalone Bitcoin reserve, marking a significant milestone in institutional cryptocurrency adoption. Governor Greg Abbott signed Senate Bill 21 into law, creating a dedicated fund separate from the state treasury and shielded from routine reallocations.

The move contrasts with retreats from similar initiatives in Florida and Arizona. Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar will oversee the reserve, which aims to evaluate Bitcoin as a strategic asset class. "We can buy land, we can buy gold; the state should have the option of evaluating the best performing asset over the last decade," said bill author Senator Charles Schwertner.

This development follows former President Trump's executive order to establish a federal bitcoin reserve, suggesting growing bipartisan recognition of cryptocurrency's role in public finance. The legislation includes companion bill HB 4488 to cement the reserve's legal status regardless of future purchase decisions.

Bitcoin On-Chain Activity Diverges from Price Strength as Metrics Signal Bearish Trends

Bitcoin's price remains resilient above $100,000, hovering NEAR its all-time high of $111,700, but on-chain metrics tell a starkly different story. Glassnode's latest report reveals blockchain activity has slumped to levels typically associated with bear markets, creating a puzzling divergence from the asset's bullish price action.

Daily transactions have plummeted to 320,000-500,000, a far cry from the 730,000 peak seen in 2024. The decline stems primarily from reduced non-monetary activity like Inscriptions and Runes, which previously drove network congestion. While monetary transfers remain steady, the overall drop in usage marks a departure from historical patterns where price rallies correlated with increased on-chain activity.

The quiet blockchain suggests investors may be holding rather than transacting, or that speculative froth has temporarily left the network. This anomaly raises questions about whether current price levels reflect organic demand or speculative positioning ahead of potential ETF approvals.

Bitcoin Consolidates as Market Awaits Directional Catalyst

Bitcoin's price action remains subdued, trading at $103,869 just below key short-term moving averages. The cryptocurrency shows neither bullish nor bearish conviction, with thin volume and neutral technical indicators suggesting a market in wait-and-see mode.

Technical analysis reveals a standoff between buyers and sellers. The RSI at 49.63 sits squarely in neutral territory, while the widening MACD gap of -201.72 gives bears a slight edge. 'This is the calm before the storm,' observes one trader, noting Bitcoin's tendency for explosive moves after periods of compression.

Market participants appear content to let price oscillate between support and resistance levels for now. The ADX reading of 24.38 indicates just enough trend strength to keep traders attentive, but not enough to prompt decisive action. All eyes remain on Bitcoin for signs of its next major move.

Bitcoin Undergoes Leverage Purge as $160M Longs Liquidated

Bitcoin's violent descent below $103,000 triggered a $160 million long liquidation cascade on Binance, erasing days of Leveraged positioning. The bloodletting coincided with a -$100 million net taker volume reading - a telltale signature of aggressive spot selling.

Market structure metrics hint at potential catharsis. The 396 Stock-to-Flow ratio and depressed stablecoin reserves suggest dry powder remains sidelined, while Santiment's realized cap data shows $1.11 billion in daily exits - classic deleveraging behavior preceding basing patterns.

Binance's derivatives reset flushed overextended speculation, creating conditions for healthier accumulation. Short-term holder participation has evaporated, with HODL waves confirming retail retreat. Such washouts often plant seeds for the next leg higher.

South Korea’s Crypto Push: Bitcoin ETFs Headed For Approval In 2025

South Korean regulators are preparing for a significant shift in the financial landscape, with spot Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency ETFs expected to launch by the second half of 2025. The Financial Services Commission has submitted a roadmap to the Presidential Committee on State Affairs Planning, detailing new rules and infrastructure for issuing, trading, and valuing these funds. This initiative aligns with President Lee Jae-myung’s pledge to integrate cryptocurrencies into the mainstream financial system.

The FSC aims to establish clear guidelines on custody, trading platforms, and fund evaluation before any ETF reaches the market. Retail investors will likely gain exposure to Bitcoin and other digital assets through traditional brokerage accounts, reducing reliance on self-custody options.

In addition to ETFs, regulators plan to introduce a domestic stablecoin pegged to the Korean won by late 2025. This won-based token is designed to mitigate capital flight and offer a local digital payment alternative. The framework will include issuance rules, reserve requirements, and auditing standards to maintain user trust.

Investor protections are a cornerstone of the proposals, with the government considering a "one-strike" policy to safeguard participants in the evolving crypto market.

Bitcoin Faces Critical Test at $95,500–$97,000 Support Zone Amid Market Uncertainty

Bitcoin's recent price action has left investors questioning its ability to reclaim higher ground. After touching a record high nearly a month ago, the cryptocurrency has struggled to maintain momentum, now trading near $104,000—a 2.03% drop in the past 24 hours. Geopolitical tensions and new US trade tariffs have added downward pressure, with BTC briefly dipping to $101,000.

Glassnode's latest analysis highlights a make-or-break zone between $95,500 and $97,000, identified through its Cost Basis Distribution heatmap. This range represents the first major supply cluster below current levels and sits just beneath the short-term holders' cost basis—a critical confluence of technical and on-chain support.

Market participants are watching this level closely. A hold here could reaffirm bullish conviction, while a breakdown might trigger accelerated selling. The heatmap data suggests this zone has historically acted as both springboard and trapdoor during volatile periods.

Bitcoin’s Market Dynamics Show Cautious Accumulation Amid Volatility

Bitcoin's market behavior suggests a transitional phase as long-term holders exhibit restraint. The Coin Days Destroyed metric has halved from recent peaks, settling at 500K, signaling reduced profit-taking activity. This cooling-off period aligns with the CDD 30-Day Moving Average, indicating a strategic shift toward accumulation rather than distribution.

Market stress appears contained, with UTXOs in Loss surging 42.81% while profitable positions declined marginally. The taker buy/sell ratio's modest 1.04% gain to 1.028 reflects tempered Optimism among perpetual traders—enough to maintain bullish sentiment without triggering decisive momentum.

Volatility persists as the market digests recent price action. The data paints a picture of disciplined investors playing the long game, with underwater positions concentrated among recent entrants rather than indicating broad market weakness.

Texas Establishes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, Targeting Market Stability

Texas Governor Greg Abbott has signed SB 21 into law, creating the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—making Texas the third U.S. state to formalize a sovereign cryptocurrency holding. The bill, delivered to Abbott on June 1, 2025, was signed ahead of the June 22 constitutional deadline for automatic enactment.

The reserve will be managed by the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts as an off-treasury fund, capitalized through legislative appropriations, fees, investment returns, and voluntary crypto donations. The law explicitly restricts investments to cryptocurrencies with a 12-month average market capitalization exceeding $500 billion, effectively limiting holdings to Bitcoin in the current market landscape.

Legislative revisions introduced stricter risk controls and clearer operational guidelines, including constraints on speculative use of public funds. This MOVE follows Texas' earlier passage of HB 4488, which safeguards dedicated crypto reserves from diversion.

Bitcoin Tests Range Lows Amid Liquidity Uncertainty

Bitcoin's failure to hold above $106,000 has reignited market anxiety as it retreats to the $103,000–$104,000 demand zone. The cryptocurrency now faces a critical juncture—either triggering a liquidity-fueled reversal or succumbing to deeper correction pressures.

Geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty continue casting a shadow over crypto markets. Volatility remains elevated as traders navigate conflicting signals, with Bitcoin's current range-bound action reflecting the broader market indecision.

The $100,000 psychological support level demonstrates remarkable resilience, having held since June. Yet the absence of decisive upward momentum suggests growing headwinds may limit near-term upside potential.

Will BTC Price Hit 100000?

James from BTCC suggests that BTC's path to $100,000 hinges on key technical and fundamental factors. Below is a summary of critical data:

While bullish adoption news (Texas reserve, South Korea ETFs) could propel prices, bearish technicals and market uncertainty may delay a breakout. A close above $105,403.81 would strengthen the case for $100,000.